Money managers for Asia’s wealthy families are favoring the yen as it benefits from the turmoil in global financial markets.

Credit Suisse Group AG is advising its private-banking clients to buy the yen against the euro or South Korean won because the Japanese currency remains undervalued versus the dollar. Stamford Management Pte, which oversees $250 million for Asia’s rich, told clients the yen is set to strengthen to 110 against the greenback as soon as the end of this month. Singapore-based Stephen Diggle, who runs Vulpes Investment Management, plans to add to assets in Japan where the family office already owns hotels and part of a nightclub in a ski resort.

The yen has outperformed all 31 other major currencies this year as Japan’s current-account surplus makes it attractive for investors seeking a haven. Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda’s Jan. 29 decision to adopt negative interest rates has failed to rein in the currency’s advance.

“All existing drivers still point to more yen strength,” said Koon How Heng, senior foreign-exchange strategist at Credit Suisse’s private banking and wealth management unit in Singapore. “The BOJ will need to do more to convince the markets about the effectiveness of its negative interest-rate policy.”

15-Month High

The yen has appreciated more than 7 percent against the dollar this year to 112.16 as of 6:31 a.m. in London Friday. It touched 110.99 Thursday, the strongest level since Oct. 31, 2014, the day the BOJ unexpectedly increased monetary stimulus for the second time during Kuroda’s tenure.

That’s a drawback for the central bank governor. He needs a weaker yen to help meet his target of boosting Japan’s inflation rate to 2 percent and keep exports competitive.

Stamford Management has briefed some of the families whose wealth it helps to manage about the firm’s “bullish stance” on the yen, said its chief executive officer, Jason Wang.

BOJ ‘Ineffective’

“The adoption of negative interest rates reeks of desperation to me,” Wang said. “It’s akin to an admission by the BOJ that conventional monetary policy is ineffective in hitting their 2 percent inflation target.”

Credit Suisse predicts that the yen will strengthen to 115 against the euro in 12 months, from 126.91 Friday. Japan’s currency will gain to 11.10 won in 12 months, from 10.79, according to Heng.

In 2013, the yen tumbled 18 percent to 105.31 per dollar after Kuroda started quantitative and qualitative easing. It fell an additional 12 percent in 2014 to 119.78 helped by his surprise expansion of the program. The currency depreciated just 0.4 percent last year.

The yen’s weakness attracted tourists to Japan and boosted occupancy rates at the four hotels that Vulpes owns. The currency’s resilience now will be reassuring for investors whose money Diggle is putting into those assets along with his own, said the former hedge-fund manager. The family office owns boutique hotels, a cafe bar, part of a nightclub and a ski chalet in the resort town of Nozawa Onsen in Nagano prefecture, central Japan.

“We are positively disposed to selectively adding to our Japanese hotel portfolio,” said Diggle, who made money in 2014 from the dollar’s advance against the euro, yen and Australian dollar. “We see Japanese banks being somewhat keener to lend money to property and hospitality businesses and that’s a huge positive for an industry starved of credit for two decades.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-12/asia-s-rich-advised-to-buy-yen-as-boj-s-negative-rates-backfire

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아시아의 money manager들이  유로나  한국 원화 대신에 일본 엔화를  구매하라고 권하고 있답니다.   왜냐면 엔화가  달러에 비해서 저평가 되어 있다네요.   

Stamford Management Pte사에서도  이달말에  달러 대비 엔화 환율이 110엔으로 평가 절상할 것으로  예상했습니다.  

일본의 경상 수지 흑자때문에 엔화투자가 매력적으로 보여서  투자자들이 안전한 자산으로 몰려들어   올해 들어서  31개국  주요 통화에 대해서 평가 절상 되었습니다. 

구로다 일본 은행 총재의  마이너스 금리 정책은   엔화 강세를 저지하는데 실패 했습니다. 

엔화가 달러화에 대해서 올해에만 7퍼센트 평가 절상 되어서   런던 현지 금요일  오전 6시 31분에 112.16을 찍었습니다.   지난 목요일에는  2014년 10월 이후로  처음으로   110.99 까지 내려갔습니다.  

Stamford Management, chief executive officer, Jason Wang 이 말하길 "  일본중앙은행의 마이너스 금리 채택은  절박한 상황을 반영하고  있고  이것은  일본 중앙은행의  전통적인 통화 정책이  2퍼센트 물가 달성에는  효과가  없다는 것과  다를바 없다."

Credit Suisse도  12개월 내로  엔화가 유로화에 대해서  현재의  126.91 에서  115 까지 평가 절상 될 것으로  예상했습니다. 

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하여튼  일본 엔화가  그 동안  양적 완화로 인해서  절하 되어서  한국 수출이  힘들었는데  이제는  다시  강세로  돌아서서  한국 수출에  도움이 될 것 같습니다.    

미국 눈치 보느라  원화 평가 절하 시키려고 해도 미국 쪽에서 계속 눈치 주는 바람에  힘들었는데   잘 되었네요.  야당 국개의원때문에 내수 살리기는  힘들고  수출이라도  잘 되었으면 좋겟네요.