China’s foreign-exchange reserves, already at a three-year low, are poised to post a second consecutive record monthly drop as policy makers intervene to support the yuan.
The central bank will say Sunday that the currency hoard fell by $118 billion to $3.2 trillion in January, according to economists’ estimates in a Bloomberg survey. That would exceed a record $108 billion decline in December, which brought last year’s total draw-down to more than half a trillion dollars and capped the first annual decrease in the reserves since 1992.
Policy makers are burning through billions of dollars to hold up a weakening currency amid flagging growth and $1 trillion in capital outflows last year. The yuan sank to a five-year low last month as the People’s Bank of China set the reference rate at an unexpectedly weak level, a signal that it’s more tolerant of depreciation as growth slows.
“China is facing a significant capital outflow problem,” said Krishna Memani, who helps oversee $217 billion as chief investment officer at Oppenheimer Funds Inc. in New York. “It’s an astounding reduction in their capital account position. This is an issue they’ve been aware of, and they have to find a way of managing it. The economy itself cannot turn this around.”
The draw-down has accelerated since the central bank’s surprise devaluation of the currency in August. Reserves tumbled $94 billion that month, a record at the time. Another cut to the yuan’s reference rate last month spurred a stock sell-off that has helped push the Shanghai Composite Index down 21 percent this year and into a bear market.
Beijing’s foreign-exchange reserves surged almost 200-fold from $21.2 billion in 1993 to a peak of almost $4 trillion in 2014. Even after falling 17 percent since then, the reserves remain the world’s largest and are almost triple the level held by No. 2 Japan.
Jian Chang, chief China economist at Barclays Plc in Hong Kong, forecasts a drop of $140 billion, one of the biggest projected decreases in the survey of economists. Commerzbank AG’s Zhou Hao and two others estimate an $80 billion reduction, the smallest in the poll.
"China has enforced many measures to limit capital outflows and plug the leaks in its capital account, which may have reduced the reserves drawdown," Chang wrote in a report this week. "Nonetheless, we think the bias remains for capital to flow out of the country” and in turn for a weaker yuan, he said.
China’s top economic planner said this week that the growth objective for this year is for an expansion in the range of 6.5 percent to 7 percent. The 6.9 percent expansion in 2015 was the slowest in 25 years. Economists forecast 6.5 percent growth this year.
“China is under pressure,” Chris Leung, a senior economist at DBS Bank Hong Kong Ltd, wrote in a recent report. “Amid increasing uncertainties and market volatilities, the speed of reserves depletion will likely accelerate in the short term.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-05/china-s-foreign-reserves-poised-for-record-drop-on-yuan-defense
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중국의 외화보유고가 최근 3년 중에서 최저점을 기록 했답니다. 그리고 위엔화 환율 방어하느라 두달 연속 기록 갱신 하면서 외환보유고 팍팍 줄었습니다.
중국중앙은행에 따르면 1180억불이 줄어서 현재 외환보유고는 3조2천억 달러라고 발표 했습니다. 지난해 12월에 3조3천억불 이었는데 금새 줄어 드는 군요.
중국이 현재 심각한 자본 유출 문제에 직면해 있고 중국 경제 혼자서 이문제를 해결하기가 쉽지 않을 거랍니다.
Chris Leung, a senior economist at DBS Bank Hong Kong Ltd 이 양반 말에 의하면 불확실성과 시장의 변동성이 계속 증대 되어서 단 기간내에 외환보유고가 줄어드는 속도에 가속도가 붙을 거라고 하네요.
내가 돈을 많이 가진 중국 자산가라면 진짜 수단 방법 안 가리고 위엔화를 달러로 바꿔서 미국 국채나 해외 부동산에 투자하지 중국내에 현금 그대로 들고 있지는 않을 겁니다.
월스트리트저널(WSJ)에 따르면 리카싱 회장은 2011년부터 중국 부동산 포트폴리오를 축소해왔다. 대중 무역과 금융의 관문인 홍콩 항만과 리테일 지분도 일부 매각했다.
리카싱의 일부 측근들은 이 같은 움직임을 리카싱의 선명지명으로 평가한다. 중국에서라면 어디서든지 쉽게 높은 투자수익률을 올릴 수 있었던 호황기가 끝나가는 시점에서 중국보다 유럽에 더 값 싼 투자 기회가 있고 더 큰 돈을 벌 수 있을 것이란 리카싱의 신념에 의해 비롯됐다는 설명이다. 중국 경제 둔화와 주식시장 불안, 위안화 평가 절하 등 중국발 불확실성이 글로벌 시장을 뒤흔드는 가운데 리카싱의 전략 변경은 예언자로서 그의 지위를 더욱 공고히 했다.
http://www.thebell.co.kr/front/free/contents/news/article_view.asp?key=201509070100011720000709
리카싱 이 양반이 경제 보는 돈은 있죠. 벌써 중국 경제 맛이 가는 걸 알고 2011년 부터 발을 빼고 잇었습니다. 캬~ 대단하심.
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